So it's Oscar Night again, the tears, the smiles, the sheer expense of it all. Yet we pay attention and rush out the next weekend to watch the re-released winners.

It's something of a tradition in the Keenan household that we watch the oscars live, all 5 hours from 1am. As an exercise in staying awake I'll be noting my observations of the evening here and commenting on the winners.

Don't expect wonderful grammar, It's really late... besides the BBC have got Jonathon Ross presenting again, so think yourselves lucky.

So.... a couple of predictions, this year is pretty tough to call in most categories but I'll cover the main ones below.

Best Actor

There is no question that the year's best male performance was Daniel Day Lewis in Gangs Of New York. He blew everyone else off the screen and managed to make Scorsese's jumbled mess of a film very passable. He's already taken home most of the other best actor awards from various other ceremonies this year so this is my top tip. I'm also betting on an understated acceptance speech that mentions the war in Iraq at least once.

Mike Predicts - Daniel Day Lewis

Best Actress

Right, talking of tough to call. There are so many possibilities for Best Actress.

Salma Hayek
Nicole Kidman
Diane Lane
Julianne Moore
Renée Zellweger

I must say that my money was on Nicole Kidman for The Hours until the other awards started throwing everything at Chicago. Renee Zellweger was nominated in this category a few years ago in one of the least deserved nominations ever, for the title role in Bridget Jones' Diary... It was akin to nominating Hugh Grant for the Nobel Peace Prize based on his role in Mickey Blue Eyes... That said, Chicago is packing one hell of a punch and the role of Roxie is one that Ms Zellweger really made her own.

Ms Kidman will probably clinch this because she is nominated for a "serious acting" role, but I wouldn't put Renee down yet.

Mike Predicts - Nicole Kidman (probably)

Best Supporting Actor

Chris Cooper
Ed Harris
Paul Newman
John C. Reilly
Christopher Walken

I am yet to see The Road To Perdition, it's one of those films that I really want to see but still haven't found the time for. Still, my money's on Mr Newman for this one. It's his 10th Oscar nomination and he's well loved in tinsel town.

Chris Cooper puts in a great performance in Adaptation and John C. Reilly is great in Chicago but neither really pack enough punch to be recognized in this category.

That leaves Christopher Walken and Ed Harris, both fantastic actors and both turning in solid performances in their respective roles, (Walken in Catch Me If You Can, Harris in The Hours). Mr Walken is unfortunately in a "Comedy" which happens to be a true and rather dramatic story and so I can't see the Academy recognising him this year. Ed Harris is always turning in "Oscar Winning Performances" tm and the academy knows that he'll be back soon, so I think he'll be pipped to the post this year.

Mike Predicts - Paul Newman

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates
Julianne Moore
Queen Latifah
Meryl Streep
Catherine Zeta-Jones

Another nail biter here... it really is anybody's this year. 2 of the nominations are from Chicago, (Catherine Zeta Jones, Queen Latifa), and both have a fair chance although Zeta Jones has the better shot.

Kathy Bates turns in a great performance opposite Jack Nicholson in about Schmit, but I really don't feel that this is either of their years.

Mike Predicts - Catherine Zeta Jones

Direction

Chicago - Rob Marshall
Gangs Of New York - Martin Scorsese
The Hours - Stephen Daldry
The Pianist - Roman Polanski
Talk To Her - Pedro Almodóvar

I did think that Scorsese would walk this for Gangs Of New York, and then I watched the film. The biggest joke on the nominations list this year is the GONY nomination for best editing... the whole film is shoddy... still he's been waiting for the little gold guy for some time, so this year could see an award given for his past work... but that would be wrong.

I then watched the BAFTAs and considered that the next best chance went to Roman Polanski for The Pianist, but then he's recently had child abuse allegations leveled at him from the 1980's so that could be his chances scuppered.

Rob Marshall is the only other possibility. He has been recognized for his direction of Chicago elsewhere but I think he'll ultimately lose out to Scorsese, which would be a real shame.

Mike's Prediction - Gangs Of New York - Martin Scorsese

Best Picture

Chicago
Gangs Of New York
The Hours
The Lord Of The Rings : The Two Towers
The Pianist

This category will, as last year, produce the biggest injustice of the night.

The Lord Of The Rings : TTT deserves this award on every level, the LOTR films are already classics and they will certainly be around for many, many years to come. This cannot be said for the film that beat the first LOTR to the best picture award last year, A Beautiful Mind. Don't get me wrong, ABM was a well acted and directed film... Jennifer Connelly in particular deserved her best supporting actress nod... but the LOTR films are entire packages that should inspire every Hollywood film-maker to excel.

That said, they were made in New Zealand, so we can't really expect the biggest American awards ceremony to shun it's own for the Kiwis.

So, with that said... Chicago will probably walk this. It's a really good musical that's been transferred competently to the screen... the only thing that irritates me about Chicago winning best picture is that Moulin Rouge was a triumph in dragging the musical movie into the 21st century and it won very little. Chicago is moderate in every way when compared to Moulin Rouge... there really is no justice.

Mike's Prediction - Chicago.

And some in short...

Documentary - Bowling For Colombine
Visual Effects - LOTR : The Two Towers
Adapted Screenplay : Adaptation
Original Song - Eminem "Lose Yourself"
Least Likely To Be Sensitive and Cry - Steve Martin

The Night...

So I'm about half way through the night and Chicago is cleaning up. Catherine Zeta Jones did indeed get supporting actress and accepted it in one of the most terrifying speeches of the night so far... she looked about a second away from giving birth.

At the start of the night there was a surprise with the best supporting actor, Chris Cooper won for his role in Adaptation which is fantastic. He said in his speech that he hoped for world peace... and left it at that, which was great.

The Two Towers picked up the visual effects award, as I expected it would. Star Wars was really overlooked in this category, I doubt people understood the number of elements that were CGI. Just for "Achievement in Visual Effects" in it's purest meaning Mr Lucas should have taken the award home.

Michael Moore took home the oscar for Best Documentary which was the correct decision, his speech was very politically motivated, personally attacking Bush and laying into the war. This illicted a massive amount of booing and hissing from the audience and I must say it did seem to be more than a little out of line... tonight isn't about the war in Iraq, make reference to it respectfully... as Chris Cooper did, but leave it at that. Still, great documentary.

U2 are just about to perform their nominated Original Song from Gangs Of New York, I'm still waiting for Eminem to perform Lose Yourself, just to see how he's going to handle the understated tone of the evening... I don't think dungarees and a chainsaw are going to cut it tonight.

Actually, I like U2... but that song is awful.

Best actor is coming up and Jonathon Ross is currently discussing who might win and I've sort of forgotten that there are some fantastic actors in the running. I still think that Daniel Day Lewis will sweep it, but what a year... Jack, Michael Caine, Daniel Day Lewis... all fantastic actors in fantastic roles this year. Michael Caine really has no chance, his role has been seen as Anti-American and that's really not popular at the moment. Jack, well Jack has too many awards.

Halle Berry is on to present best actor...

Well strike a light... it's Adrian Brody for the Pianist. That's surprised me.. good speech though, really understated, self-depreciating and honest. Fair Play... maybe this opens the door for Polanski as best director, we'll see.

Blimey, Harrision Ford has brought his girlfriend... Callista "Ally McBeal" Flockheart... along. For a second I thought he'd finally given into his age and started carrying a stick.

Well, it looks like they've skipped Eminem performing... although he has just won Best Original Song. I predicted this one purely because it is the most fitting of all the songs when put into the context of the film it was written for... and that's what it's about after all... It's a shame he wasn't at least there to collect the oscar, that would have been worth seeing.

Meryl Streep is on to present Peter O'Toole with a lifetime achievement award... There was talk of him not accepting this award as he reckons he's too young :) Good on him. He's a cracking actor and he's had some of the best roles around.

Linda Blair is on the BBC's coverage tonight with Jonathon Ross, I just can't help seeing her as possessed by the devil... I hope you get that reference, or I'll seem very strange. John Rhys Davies is on now as well chatting briefly about best actor and The Lord Of The Rings... he's got the optimistic view that as LOTR is essentially 1 film in 3 parts that next year it'll clean up... here's hoping.

Best Actress next... Denzel Washington is to present. This should be interesting...

Nicole Kidman get's the oscar, "By A Nose"... Oh Denzel, you are a card... and she's turning out to be the blubber this year. Good on her though... Really depressing subject matter for a film though... for anyone who doesn't know, the main themes are depression and lesbianism... maybe it should have been renamed, Les Miserables. Boom Boom... Look, it's 04:25.

John Rhys Davies is making a good point about Nicole Kidman, she's unrecognisable in The Hours, and not just because of the makeup... so that's the best way to determine why she won. He's also talking about the possibility of there being nominations for CGI enhanced or Prosthetically enhanced parts, such as Nicole's nose and Gollum in The Two Towers... You've got to feel sorry for Andy Serkis who performed as Gollum, he really has missed out on a Best Supporting Actor nod because they "painted over him" afterwards.

Redbull... at this time in the morning it seemed like a good idea... It might give you wings, but then so do Always Ultra and I wouldn't recommend ingesting them at 4:45am either.

Ronald Harwood has just got "Best Adapted Screenplay" for the Pianist... Bobbins. As anyone who has seen adaptation will know, it's the most original interpretation of any writing in a long time... Maybe it belonged in the Original Screenplay category.

Original Screenplay has gone to the chap who wrote "Talk To Her". I've not seen the film, but the guy is a crazy looking bloke... and another short, dignified anti-war speech.

Ah... the Indiana Jones theme, who could this be? Mr Ford is to present Best Director. Roman... Polanski. Of course he can't be with them tonight, because he can't enter the country without being arrested... but there you go. At least Scorsese didn't get it :)

Krik Douglas is on, with his little known son. To present Best Picture... fingers crossed for an upset... But no... Chicago, the windy musical. Ah well... it's the 2nd best of all the nominations. maybe I should let it go...

The full list of winners are here.